Anales del Instituto de Actuarios Españoles

Cybersecurity in small and medium-sized enterprises: vulnerabilities, threats and the development of cyber insurance

Ibtissame El Ferjani El Ferjani — 2025-09-16

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent an essential pillar of the global economic structure. However, their increasing digitalisation also exposes them to an growing number of cyberattacks. Despite their vulnerability, many of these companies do not prioritise cybersecurity due to a lack of resources, knowledge and a misperception of risk. A review of the literature published between 2019 and 2025 is conducted to understand the current state of research in the field of SME cybersecurity and the development of cyber insurance. The results indicate that SMEs lack adequate protection measures, with phishing, ransomware and supply chain attacks being the most frequent types of attacks. Furthermore, while cyber insurance offers an effective solution for business protection and mitigation, its adoption remains low due to a lack of awareness and economic barriers. It concludes that there is a need to develop accessible cybersecurity strategies and promote the adoption of cyber insurance adapted to the reality of SMEs.

An overview of funeral insurance in Spain

Josep Lledó Benito — 2025-09-16

Funeral insurance is an insurance product designed to cover the expenses and administrative procedures associated with a person’s death. Its main purpose is to relieve the insured person’s family of the financial and bureaucratic burdens arising from the funeral. Despite its widespread presence in the Spanish market—currently, more than 22 million people in Spain have coverage under this type of insurance—academic and scientific literature on funeral insurance remains surprisingly scarce. The aim of this study is to help fill this gap by providing a comprehensive overview of funeral insurance in Spain, based on the analysis of the sociodemographic profiles of policyholders, including their geographic distribution, income levels, and municipality sizes. The study examines a representative sample of 2.1 million policies, using the insured individuals’ postal codes of residence. The results reveal an uneven penetration across provinces, income groups, and habitat sizes, with lower rates in urban areas and among higher-income individuals. However, education level, more than income, is the variable with the greatest impact, showing a statistically significant interaction effect with income. The combination of a high level of education and high income reduces the likelihood of holding a funeral insurance policy.

SCR for premium and reserve risk in non-life insurance: limitations of the standard model and statistical alternatives

Jaime Guiance Lapido — 2025-09-16

This article presents an alternative statistical approach for calculating the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) for premium and reserve risk in non-life insurance, complementing the standard methodology outlined in Solvency II. A statistic called ???? is proposed as an analysis tool, which is constructed without considering the diversification effects established by the standard formula To evaluate the usefulness of this alternative measure, Monte Carlo simulations and bootstrap techniques are applied under various probability distributions, including normal, uniform, log-normal, and Pareto. The analysis provides insights into how distributional assumptions and dependency structures influence the estimation of capital needs.The results highlight the potential of empirical quantile-based methods and internal modeling techniques, such as copulas, to enhance the understanding of risk aggregation in non-life portfolios. This study contributes to the actuarial literature by offering a complementary perspective on SCR estimation, supporting the development of tools that align with the diverse statistical characteristics of insurance portfolios.

The Social Risks Actuarial Index: design and application to Countries In The European Union

Maite Cubas-Díaz — 2025-10-28

Risks related to social sustainability directly affect the business opportunities of insurance companies. This study therefore develops the Actuarial Social Risk Index, which aims to measure the social risks to which these companies are exposed and the growth potential of the insurance sector.

This paper proposes the index, identifies the relevant risks and the variables for measuring them, and presents the calculation methodology, which includes Principal Component Analysis. This research also applies the index to thirteen European Union countries using data obtained from public databases.

The main conclusion is that this instrument can be used to measure the impact of social risks on business risk, both on the assets and liabilities of insurance companies. It can be incorporated into the risk assessment, pricing and measurement processes of insurance companies, incorporating it into risk selection, pricing and risk allocation

The impact of armed conflicts on infant mortality: an estimate based on synthetic control

Ibtissame El Ferjani El Ferjani — 2025-11-12

This study analyses the impact of armed conflicts on infant mortality, considering the Syrian war as a case study and applying the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual scenario that allows the estimation of how mortality rates would have evolved in the absence of conflict. Three age groups are studied: neonatal, childhood (5–9 years), and early adolescence (10–14 years). Based on the generated probabilities, an actuarial approach is applied to a hypothetical cohort, with particular emphasis on years of potential life lost (YPLL). The results show a clear increase in premature mortality due to the conflict, with greater intensity among those aged 5 to 9, highlighting an unequal impact according to the stage of development. In contrast, within the neonatal group, the effect of the conflict on mortality appears more moderate and less conclusive. Overall, a loss of more than 3.360 years of potential life lost is estimated, underlining the idea that armed conflicts have a negative effect on infant mortality

Evaluation and scoring proposal for international pension systems

Diego Rodolfo Gorostieta Ortega — 2025-11-12

Pension systems around the world have undergone significant transformations in recent decades in response to profound demographic changes that affect their performance. Population aging, increased life expectancy, and declining birth rates have challenged the full development of these systems, despite various parametric and structural reforms. In this context, the present article proposes a scoring system to evaluate the performance of pension systems across different countries, taking into account the diversity of existing schemes. The evaluation is structured around three fundamental pillars: coverage, adequacy, and financial sufficiency, which aim to reflect the main functions a pension system should fulfil. To construct this measure, statistical projections based on time series are used, along with principal component analysis (PCA) techniques, which allow for the synthesis of multiple variables into a single indicator. As result, this approach facilitates cross-country comparisons, annual trend analysis, and the identification of areas for improvement in the design of more effective public policies.

Chilean pension system's legitimacy crisis: insights into public perception and satisfaction levels

Claudia Verónica Castillo Rozas — 2025-11-23

his study explores the knowledge and perceptions of Chilean citizens regarding the pension system administered by the AFP (Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones), which has faced widespread criticism for failing to address economic and gender inequalities. Despite reforms, persistent public dissatisfaction stems from low pension returns and high administrative fees. The research employs a quantitative observational methodology, systematically analyzing secondary data from the Social Protection Survey (EPS), a comprehensive and nationally representative longitudinal panel study conducted in Chile, with approximately 16,000 respondents. The survey collects detailed information on labor history, social protection, and financial knowledge. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed to identify significant patterns and emerging trends. Findings reveal significant dissatisfaction among affiliates, driven by inadequate pension amounts and a lack of trust in fund administrators. The study underscores the need for greater public confidence and enhanced equity within the system These insights are essential for guiding future public policy reforms, emphasizing the importance of understanding the factors shaping affiliates' perceptions. Addressing these issues is crucial for fostering a more equitable and socially legitimate pension system in Chile. The study contributes to the broader discourse on sustainable economic development by highlighting the need for structural reforms that align with public expectations.