On flood risk management across socio-economic environments

Weihong Ni; Kira Henshaw; Wei Zhu; Jing Wang; Maoqi Hu; Corina Constantinescu

doi:10.26360/2020_4

Autores/as

Weihong Ni Arcadia University (USA)
Kira Henshaw University of Liverpool (United Kingdom)
Wei Zhu University of Liverpool (United Kingdom)
Jing Wang University of Liverpool (United Kingdom)
Maoqi Hu University of Liverpool (United Kingdom)
Corina Constantinescu University of Liverpool (United Kingdom)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26360/2020_4

Palabras clave:

riesgo de inundación, la agrupación de riesgos, valor en riesgo, distribuciones de cola pesada

Resumen

En este artículo se analiza el seguro en caso de inundación en diferentes países con diferentes niveles socio-económicos combinando sus exposiciones al riesgo, en primer lugar, a nivel continental y luego a nivel global. Después de juntar las regiones según su número de inundaciones durante el último siglo, agrupamos los países en función de estimaciones de su valor en riesgo, minimizando el valor total en riesgo de todos los grupos, como en Prettenthaler, Albrecher, Asadi, and Köberl, (2017). Utilizando distribuciones de colas pesadas para modelar las pérdidas (presentadas como porcentajes del PIB y ajustadas a la inflación), buscamos una estrategia óptima de agrupación de riesgos entre países, independientemente de su situación socioeconómica. Los beneficios económicos de dicha distribución de riesgos, tanto a nivel continental como mundial, se cuantifican mediante los correspondientes valores en riesgo con o sin agrupación. Recomendamos esta agrupación de riesgo para todos los países, como un mecanismo para reducir las primas de riesgo y aumentar la eficiencia en la respuesta a desastres.

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