Calificación y predicción del retiro temprano usando técnicas de machine learning: aplicación a los planes privados de pensiones
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26360/2019_6Palabras clave:
compañía de seguros, aprendizaje automático, retiro temprano, aprendizaje supervisadoResumen
Las técnicas de inteligencia artificial se han vuelto muy populares en las organizaciones públicas y privadas debido a que permiten un proceso de toma de decisiones más preciso. Las compañías de seguros privadas se han aventurado en este campo mediante la implementación de algoritmos que permiten una mejor comprensión de los datos disponibles. El conocimiento de las decisiones de jubilación permite a las compañías de seguros detectar el retiro temprano en un momento dado para tener una provisión presupuestaria adecuada. En este documento, los algoritmos de aprendizaje automático y datos de planes de pensiones privados se utilizan para predecir si una persona se jubila antes o después de los 65 años en función de características individuales y factores macroeconómicos.
Descargas
Citas
Alavi, A. H., A. H. Gandomi, and Larry, D. J. (2016). The progress of Machine Learning in Geosciences: Preface. Geoscience Frontiers, 7(1), 21-31.
Atchley, R. C. (1989). A continuity theory of normal aging. The Gerontologist, 29(2), 183-190.
Atchley, R. C. (1993). Critical perspectives on retirement. Voices and visions of ageing: Toward a critical gerontology. New York: Springer, 3-19.
Atchley, R. C. (1996). Retirement. Encyclopedia of Gerontology 2, San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 437-449.
Bell, R., Koren, Y., and Volinsky, C. (2008). The BellKor 2008 Solution to the Netflix Prize.
Blekesaune, M., and Skirbekk, V. (2012). Can personality predict retirement behaviour? A longitudinal analysis combining survey and register data from Norway. European Journal of Ageing, 9(3), 199-206.
Bolton, R. J., and Hand, D. J. (2001). Unsupervised profiling methods for fraud detection. Credit Scoring and Credit Control, 7, 235–255.
Bosworth, B. P., and Burtless, G. (2010). Recessions, wealth destruction, and the timing of retirement. Working Paper 2010-22. Chestnut Hill, MA: The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.
Breiman, L. (2001). Random forests. Machine Learning, 45(1), 5-32.
Breinegaard, N., Jensen, J. H., and Bonde, J. P. (2017). Organizational change, psychosocial work environment, and non-disability early retirement: A prospective study among senior public employees. Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment and Health, 43(3), 234-240.
Brown, M. T. (1996). Annual review, 1990–1996: Social class, work, and retirement behavior. Journal of Vocational Behaviour, 49(2), 159-189.
Burtless, G. and Quinn, J. F. (2002). Is working longer the answer for an aging workforce? Issue Brief No. 11. Chestnut Hill, MA: The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.
Carr, E., Johnson, G. H., Head, J., Shelton, N., Stafford, M., Stansfeld, S., and Zaninotto, P. (2016). Working conditions as predictors of retirement intentions and exit from paid employment: A 10-year follow-up of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. European Journal of Ageing. 13, 39-48.
Clark, R. L., and Spengler, J. J. (1980). The economics of individual and population aging. Cambridge University Press.
Coile, C., and Levine, P. B. (2011). The market crash and mass layoffs: How the current economic crisis may affect retirement. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 11(1), 22.
Cortes, C., and Vapnik, V. (1995). Support-vector networks. Machine Learning, 20(3), 273-297.
Costa, D. L. (1998). The evolution of retirement: An American economic history, 1880-1990. The National Bureau of Economic Research, 6-31.
Delamaire, L., Abdou, H., and Pointon, J. (2009). Credit card fraud and detection techniques: A review. Banks and Bank Systems, 4(2), 57–68.
Denton, F. T., and Spencer, B. G. (2009). What is retirement? A review and assessment of alternative concepts and measures. Canadian Journal on Aging/La Revue Canadienne du Vieillissement, 28, 63–76.
Elovainio, M., Van Den Bos, K., Linna, A., Kivimäki, M., Ala-Mursula, L., Pentti, J., and Vahtera, J. (2005). Combined effects of uncertainty and organizational justice on employee health: Testing the uncertainty management model of fairness judgments among finnish public sector employees. Social Science and Medicine, 61, 2501-2512.
Espenshade, T. J., Kamenske, G., and Turchi, B. A. (1983). Family size and economic welfare. Family Planning Perspectives, 15(6), 289-294.
Fawcett, T. (2006). An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters, 27(8), 861-874.
Feldman, D. C. (1994). The decision to retire early: A review and conceptualization. The Academy of Management Review, 19(2), 285–311.
Feldman, D. C., and Beehr, T. A. (2011). A three-phase model of retirement decision making. American Psychologist, 66(3), 193-203.
Figueira, D. A. M., Haddad, M. C. L., Gvozd, R., and Pissinati, P. S. C. (2017). Retirement decision-making influenced by family and work relationships. Revista Brasileira de Geriatria y Gerontologia, 20(2), 206-2013.
Gensler, H. (1997). Welfare and the family size decision of low-income, two-parent families. Applied Economics Letters, 4(10), 607-610.
Heinrich, H., and Weil, D. N. (2012). On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption. Journal of Population Economics, 25(3), 1019-1043.
Hurd, M. D., and Rohwedder, S. (2010). Effects of the financial crisis and great recession on American households. The National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 16407.
Juszczak, P., Adams, N. M., Hand, D. J., Whitrow, C., and Weston, D. J. (2008). The peg and bespoke classifiers for fraud detection. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 52(9), 4521–4532.
Leinonen, T., Laaksonen, M., Chandola, T., and Martikainen, P. (2016). Health as a predictor of early retirement before and after introduction of a flexible statutory pension age in Finland. Social Science and Medicine, 158, 149-157.
Lin, T. C. (2001). Letter to the editor: Impact of job stress on early retirement intention. International Journal of Stress Management, 8(3), 243-247.
Lin, Y. J., Huang, C. S., and Lin, C.C.C. (2008). Determination of insurance policy using neural networks and simplified models with factor analysis technique, WSEAS transactions on Information Science and Applications, 10(5), 1415-1425.
Liu, Y., and Xie, T. (2018). Machine learning versus Econometrics: prediction of box office. Applied Economics Letters, 26(2), 124-130.
Muldoon, D., and Kopcke, R. W. (2008). Are people claiming social security benefits later?. CRR Issue Brief Number 8-7. Chestnut Hill, MA: The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.
OECD (2017). Socioeconomic studies of the OECD, México.
Olaniyi, O., Ajibola, E., Ibiwoye, A., and Sogunro, A.B. (2012). Artificial neural network model for predicting insolvency in insurance industry. International Journal of Management and Business Research, 2(1), 59-68.
Peracchi, F., and Welch, F. (1994). Trends in labor force transitions of older men and women. Journal of Labor Economics, 12(2), 210-242.
Pozzolo, A. D., Caelen, O., Le Borgne, Y.A., and Waterschoot, S. (2014). Learned lessons in credit card fraud detection from a practitioner perspective. Expert Systems with Applications, 41(10), 4915-4928.
Stenberg, A., and Westerlund, O. (2013). Education and retirement: does University education at mid-age extend working life? IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, 2, 16.
Szinovacz, M. (2003). Contexts and pathways: retirement as institution, process and experience. In Adams, G. A., and Beehr, T. A. (Eds.) Retirement: Reasons, Processes, and Results. New York: Springer, 6-52
Talwar, A., and Kumar, Y. (2013). Machine Learning: An artificial intelligence methodology. International Journal of Engineering and Computer Science, 2(12), 3400-3404.
Turner, A. (2009). Population priorities: the challenge of continued rapid population growth. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 364, 2977–2984.
Varian, H. R. (2014). Big Data: New tricks for Econometrics. Journal of Economics Perspectives, 28(2), 3-28.
Wang M., Zhan, Y., Liu, S., and Shultz, K.S. (2008). Antecedents of bridge employment: a longitudinal investigation. Journal of Applied Psychology, 93(4), 818–830.
Wang, M., and Shi, J. (2014). Psychological Research on Retirement. Annual Review of Psychology, 65, 209–233.
Wang, M., and Alterman, V. (2017). Retirement. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Psychology. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Zheng, E., Tan, Y., Goes, P., Chellappa, R., Wu, D. J., Shaw, M., Sheng, O., and Gupta, A. (2017). When Econometrics meets Machine Learning. Data and Information Management, 1(2), 75- 83.
Zickar, M. J. (2012). The evolving history of retirement within the United States. In Wang, M. (Ed.). The Oxford Handbook of Retirement. New York: Oxford University Press, 10–21.
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2023 Jose de Jesus Rocha Salazar, María del Carmen Boado-Penas
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.