Evaluation and scoring proposal for international pension systems

Diego Rodolfo Gorostieta Ortega

doi:10.26360/2025_06

Autores/as

Diego Rodolfo Gorostieta Ortega Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México (México) https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3423-9773

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26360/2025_06

Palabras clave:

sistemas de pensiones, demografia, scoring, series de tiempo, análisis de componentes principales

Resumen

Los sistemas de pensiones en el mundo han enfrentado importantes transformaciones en las últimas décadas como respuesta a los profundos cambios demográficos que afectan su desempeño. El envejecimiento poblacional, el aumento en la esperanza de vida y la disminución de las tasas de natalidad han dificultado el pleno desarrollo de estos sistemas a pesar de las distintas reformas tanto paramétricas como estructurales. En este contexto, el presente artículo propone un scoring que permite evaluar el desempeño de los sistemas de pensiones en distintos países, tomando en cuenta los distintos esquemas existentes. La evaluación se estructura en torno a tres ejes fundamentales: cobertura, adecuación y suficiencia financiera, los cuales pretenden reflejar las principales funciones que debe cumplir un sistema de pensiones. Para la construcción de esta medida se utilizan proyecciones estadísticas basadas en series de tiempo, junto con técnicas de análisis de componentes principales (PCA), que permiten sintetizar múltiples variables en un único indicador. Como resultado, este enfoque promueve la comparación entre países, el análisis de tendencias anuales y la identificación de áreas por mejorar dentro del diseño de políticas públicas más eficaces.

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