El impacto de los conflictos bélicos en la mortalidad infantil: una estimación basada en control sintético

Ibtissame El Ferjani El Ferjani; Helena Chuliá Soler

doi:10.26360/2025_05

Authors

Ibtissame El Ferjani El Ferjani Universidad de Barcelona (España) https://orcid.org/0009-0008-9035-9098
Helena Chuliá Soler Universidad de Barcelona (España) https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5020-0519

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26360/2025_05

Keywords:

infant mortality, synthetic control, armed conflicts, years of potential life lost

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of armed conflicts on infant mortality, considering the Syrian war as a case study and applying the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual scenario that allows the estimation of how mortality rates would have evolved in the absence of conflict. Three age groups are studied: neonatal, childhood (5–9 years), and early adolescence (10–14 years). Based on the generated probabilities, an actuarial approach is applied to a hypothetical cohort, with particular emphasis on years of potential life lost (YPLL). The results show a clear increase in premature mortality due to the conflict, with greater intensity among those aged 5 to 9, highlighting an unequal impact according to the stage of development. In contrast, within the neonatal group, the effect of the conflict on mortality appears more moderate and less conclusive. Overall, a loss of more than 3.360 years of potential life lost is estimated, underlining the idea that armed conflicts have a negative effect on infant mortality

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