The withdrawal behavior: the case of an oil-producting country

Authors

  • José de Jesús Rocha Salazar University of Liverpool (United Kingdom)
  • María del Carmen Boado-Penas University of Liverpool (United Kingdom)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26360/2018_5

Keywords:

financial effect, macroeconomic effect, petroleum prices, retirement decisions

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on retirement decisions. Socio-demographic characteristics such as gender, age and level of education are considered. The unemployment rate is used as macroeconomic variable and the stock market and oil prices as financial variables. Special attention is given to oil prices. It is concluded that macroeconomic and financial variables have an impact mainly in the long term and that the number of new pensioners increases when oil prices decrease.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Ahmed, R. R., Vveinhardt, J., Streimikiene, D. y M. Fayyaz (2017). Multivariate Granger causality between macro variables and KSE 100 Index: Evidence from Johansen cointegration and Toda and Yamamoto causality. Economic Research 30(1), 1497-1521.

Bach, D.H., Sunila, S. y P. Kumar (2015). Oil price and stock returns of consumers and producers of crude oil. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 34, 245-262.

Beehr, T. A. y M. M. Bennett (2007). Examining retirement from a multi-level Perspective. Applied Psychology Series, 277-302.

Blundell, R., Meghir, C. y S. Smith (2002). Pension Incentives and the Pattern of Early Retirement. The Economic Journal, 112(478): C153-C170.

Boot, J.C.G., Feibes, W. y J. H. Lisman (1967). Further methods of derivation of quarterly figures from annual data. Applied Statistics 16, 75-71.

Bosworth, B. P. y G. Burtless (2010). Recessions, wealth destruction, and the timing of retirement. Working Paper 22, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

Blöndal, S. y S. Scarpetta (1999). The retirement decision in OECD countries. Working Paper 202, OECD Economics Department.

Breinegaard, N., Jensen, J. H. y J. P. Bonde (2017). Organizational change, psychosocial work environment, and non-disability early retirement: A prospective study among senior public employees. Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment and Health 43(3), 234-240.

Burtless, G. y J. F. Quinn (2002). Is working longer the answer for an aging workforce?. Working Paper 550, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

Cavalcanti, T. y J. T. Jalles (2013). Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Brazil and in the United States. Applied Energy 104: 475-486.

Coile, C. y P. B. Levine (2011). The Market crash and mass layoffs: How the current economic crisis may affect retirement. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy 11(1), 22.

Dorn, D. y A. Sousa (2010). Voluntary and involuntary early retirement: An international analysis. Applied Economics 42(4), 427-438.

Engle, R. F. y C. W. J. Granger (1987). Co-Integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55(2), 251-276.

Feldman, D. C. (1994). The decision to retire early: A review and conceptualization. The Academy of Management Review 19(2), 285–311.

Florêncio, P. (2016). The Brazilian 2010 oil regulatory framework and its crowding-out investment effects. Energy Policy 98: 378-389.

Gentleman, J. (1984). Mexican oil and dependent development, P. Lan, New York, USA.

Gonzalo, J. y A. Taamouti (2017). The reactions of stock market returns to unemployment. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 21(4), 1-20.

Gorodnichenko, Y., Song, J. y D. Stolyarov (2013). Macroeconomic determinants of retirement timing. Working Paper 281, Michigan Retirement Research Center.

Gustman, A. L. y T. L. Steinmeier (1986). A structural retirement model. Econometrica 54(3), 555-584.

Hakola, T. y R. Uusitalo (2004). Not so voluntary retirement decisions? Evidence from a pension reform. Journal of Public Economics 89(11-12), 2121-2136.

Hurd, M. D. y S. Rohwedder (2010). Effects of the financial crisis and great recession on American households. Working Paper 16407, The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica 59(6), 1551-1580.

Leinonen, T., Laaksonen, M., Chandola, T. y P. Martikainen (2016). Health as a predictor of early retirement before and after introduction of a flexible statutory pension age in Finland. Social Science and Medicine 158, 149-157.

Maddala, G. S. (1992). Introduction to Econometrics, Macmillan Publishing Company, United States of America.

Muldoon, D. y R. W. Kopcke (2008). Are people claiming social security benefits later? Issue Brief Number 8-7, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

Munnell, A. H., Haverstick, K. y G. Sanzenbacher (2006). Has the displacement of older workers Increased? Working Paper 17, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

OECD (2016) Reviews of Pension Systems: Mexico, 2016. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (2015). Yearly Basket Prices. Retrieved from http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm (October 19).

Queiroz, B. L. y L.R. Souza (2017). Retirement incentives and couple’s retirement decisions in Brazil. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing 9(C), 1-13.

Qianqian, Z. (2011). The impact of international oil price fluctuation on China's economy. Energy Procedia 5, 1360-1364.

Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) (2017). Estadísticas de Finanzas Públicas.

Tian, H. (2016). The role of China's real economic activity in oil price fluctuations. Procedia-Social and Behavioural Science 220, 522-530.

Wang, M. y V. Alterman (2017). Retirement. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Psychology.

Published

2018-12-15

How to Cite

Rocha Salazar, J. de J., & Boado-Penas, M. del C. (2018). The withdrawal behavior: the case of an oil-producting country. Anales Del Instituto De Actuarios Españoles, (24), 99–122. https://doi.org/10.26360/2018_5

Issue

Section

Research articles