Cuantificación de la inflación en el proceso de reservas de siniestros

Agustin Saggese

doi:10.26360/2024_04

Authors

Agustin Saggese Universidad de Buenos Aires (Argentina), EY (España)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26360/2024_04

Keywords:

Reserves, Inflation, Non Life, Claims, Actuarial, Interest

Abstract

The present document focuses on quantifying inflation in the context of the insurance industry, with a focus on the inflation projection in claims. The main objective is to identify and estimate the factors that affect and will affect claims payments, understanding their scope and impact. A methodological approach is used that incorporates a vector of past and future inflation into the model. The data used comes from a portfolio of insurance with high inflation and is reflected in triangles representing paid claims and closed cases with payment for two types of automobile insurance: partial damage and liability for bodily injury.

The text provides a detailed analysis of the data and uses different methodologies to quantify the inflation implicit in claims. Trends in development factors and the increase in the average cost of claims are analyzed. Likewise, assumptions and challenges in estimating inflation are discussed, considering the duration of claims and their relationship with factors such as exchange rates, general inflation, and wage increases.

The document concludes with the presentation of results of estimated variations and their relationship with different economic indices. The importance of identifying social or surplus inflation in the data for future projection is highlighted.

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