Tracking Climate Extremes in the United Kingdom: The UK Actuarial Climate Index (UKACI)

Jutatip Nuntasuwan; Carmen Boado Penas

doi:10.26360/2026_06

Autores/as

Jutatip Nuntasuwan Heriot-Watt University and the Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences. Edinburgh, UK https://orcid.org/0009-0002-1280-6442
Carmen Boado Penas Heriot-Watt University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0643-4921

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26360/2026_06

Palabras clave:

eventos meteorológicos extremos, riesgo climático, índices climáticos, Reino Unido

Resumen

El Índice Climático Actuarial (Actuaries Climate Index, ACI), desarrollado conjuntamente por un consorcio de organizaciones actuariales norteamericanas, es un indicador diseñado para analizar los cambios a largo plazo en los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos y en el nivel del mar en Estados Unidos y Canadá. En lugar de centrarse en las condiciones climáticas medias, el ACI cuantifica los cambios en la frecuencia de los eventos extremos, incluidas las temperaturas máximas y mínimas extremas, las precipitaciones intensas, las sequías prolongadas, los vientos fuertes y las variaciones del nivel del mar en las zonas costeras, que constituyen factores determinantes del riesgo climático para la sociedad y el sector asegurador.

En este artículo, construimos el ACI para el Reino Unido, analizamos su evolución, identificamos las variables meteorológicas que más contribuyen al índice y comparamos nuestros resultados con los del Índice Climático Actuarial de Australia (Australian Actuaries Climate Index, AACI). Nuestros resultados muestran que el ACI puede variar considerablemente en función de las variables seleccionadas para su construcción, lo que pone de manifiesto la importancia de tener en cuenta las características climáticas de cada región a la hora de elaborar estos índices.

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